Data centre build-out lifts Australian GDP by up to 0.2 points, RBA staff estimate

Reserve Bank of Australia staff estimate that data centre investment in Australia has risen around 10-fold over the past three years, based on the capital expenditure survey. Because most of the equipment is imported, the authors say data centres have directly contributed up to about 0.2 percentage points of annual GDP growth over the past year. The note, an Insight published on 10 November 2026, assumes around 70 per cent of the equipment is imported, within an external range of 50 to 80 per cent.

The RBA says construction of the buildings is only around a quarter of activity, while servers, storage and networking gear make up about three-quarters of cost and typically come from Asian economies including Taiwan and South Korea. Investment is volatile from quarter to quarter because a small number of firms import the equipment at various stages of a project. Most existing and planned facilities are in Sydney and Melbourne, where grid power, water, fibre and skilled labour are easier to access.

Electricity is the main pressure point. The Australian Energy Market Operator estimates data centres used around 3 per cent of operational electricity consumption in the National Electricity Market in 2025/26, and Oxford Economics analysis for AEMO suggests 7.5 to 17.1 per cent by 2035/36. Liaison contacts told the RBA the main constraint on development is access to network infrastructure, particularly in metropolitan areas, and some suggested strong demand growth could put upward pressure on wholesale electricity prices for a time. Contacts also reported rising demand from operators for renewable power purchase agreements, though some operators prefer well-advanced projects, which may mean competing for existing supply.

Industry trackers describe a much larger pipeline. RenewMap tracks 276 projects: 150 operating at about 2 GW, 30 under construction at about 3.7 GW and 96 in development at about 31 GW, measured in connection capacity. Only about 2.4 GW across 20 development projects holds planning approval, and roughly 19 GW has not been submitted for approval. AEMO's 2026 Electricity Statement of Opportunities states that 36 per cent of data centre projects in its 2025 pipeline were later cancelled. Of the proposed capacity, 58 per cent is regional, against 98 per cent of operating capacity in metropolitan areas.

Data Centres Australia and DC Byte, which assess project viability rather than announced plans, forecast operational capacity rising to 3.9GW by 2030 from 1.6GW across 163 facilities, up from a 3.2GW forecast in April. Capacity under construction has doubled since April, and Melbourne's pipeline now exceeds Sydney's. The report links Melbourne's gain to faster approvals under Victoria's Development Facilitation Program, and Sydney's fall to announced energy constraints and less certain policy timelines. RenewMap puts average planning time at about 19 months in NSW and about five in Victoria. The share of the pipeline outside the two hubs rose from 19 per cent to 31 per cent over two years.

Local opposition is a live risk. Tech Insider, citing AAP, said Jemena paused installation of power poles needed for NEXTDC's M3 site in Melbourne after community opposition. Deloitte Access Economics counted 37 projects worth $141 billion in the pipeline, up 36 per cent in a year, according to the AAP report. Deloitte partner Stephen Smith told AAP that tougher US regulation does not automatically make Australia a net beneficiary and that Australian politicians may move to somewhat more regulated management of construction.